Considering no one was surprised by Karen's ouster tonight (despite some surprisingly sharp group-number dance moves), I'm starting a new Results Night tradition: ranking the remaining contestants from Most Likely To Win to Least Likely To Win.
Based on 9 seasons of Idol watching, picking out those destined to perform at the Kodak is tricky business, but there are some common trends to look out for: winners perform strongly every week, hit us with something unexpected, have a distinctive direction/sound, and most importantly: they never, ever grace the Bottom 3. (Seriously, in nine seasons of Idol, the only winner to hit the Bottom 3 was Fantasia Barrino in Season 3's Final 7 diva massacre (and oh what a horror that was!)). So let it be known: falling into the bottom 3 forecasts eventual elimination--always. Which means there are still 9 (out of 11) viable contenders.
In fact, I'm sure somewhere deep in the Idol machine, there's a department devoted to forecasting voting statistics-- they definitely don't tell us the contestants' voting numbers for a reason. Chances are, the Clarksons and Underwoods of the competition simply dominate voting from a very early stage, and who would want to ruin all that perfectly crafted Idol suspense (he says without any irony at all...)?
Anyway, here goes!
Top 11 Most-Likely-To-Win Rankings:
1.) Scotty McCreery
2.) Stefano Langone
3.) Lauren Alaina
4.) Pia Toscano
5.) James Durbin
6.) Casey Abrams
7.) Paul McDonald
8.) Jacob Lusk
9.) Thia Megia
10.) Naima Adedapo (Bottom 3: Final 12)
11.) Haley Reinhart (Bottom 3: Final 13, 12)
12.) Karen Rodriguez (Bottom 3: Final 13, 12)
13.) Ashton Jones (Bottom 3: Final 13)
So there you have it, America. We have one cut left before the Idol 2011 tour roster is announced-- and let me say, I have a feeling a guy is getting the ax next, because heaven forbid there's an uneven guy/girl ratio for the tour... but as always, we shall see!
Till next week,