Thursday, March 31, 2011

Final 11 (Redux) Results

"No more second chances!" preached Ryan Seacrest. And with that, this season's three weakest performers fell out of American favor, with the two least-promising going home (imagine that)!

After a slew of generally awkward and uninteresting performances (save for one country-slay-me-moment courtesy of Lauren "stair-rider" Alaina), Thia and Naima suffered what seemed to be expected downfalls-- almost as tragic as Fantasia Barrino's bizarrely chosen red-slitted frock and twinkie hair-roll. Seriously, has Fantasia decided that her post-win Idol showings all have to end in disaster (cue Simon Cowell jaw-drop)?

At the end of it all, we have a Top 9. And out of that group of 9, only 5 remain viable contenders for the crown (that's right, I'm sticking by my Bottom 3 rule, this early in the game). I mean, out of roughly 90 eliminations across 9 seasons, Idol winners have only appeared in the bottom grouping 4 times (Fantasia twice, Kris and Ruben once each)-- and 6 out of 9 winners never ever saw the B3. So scroll on down and check out the rankings...

Top 9 Most-Likely-To-Win Rankings:
1.) Pia Toscano
2.) Lauren Alaina
3.) Scotty McCreery
4.) James Durbin
5.) Jacob Lusk
6.) Casey Abrams (Bottom 3: Final 11)
7.) Haley Reinhart (Bottom 3: Final 13, 12)
8.) Paul McDonald (Bottom 3: Final 11.2)
9.) Stefano Langone (Bottom 3: Final 11)
10.) Naima Adedapo (Bottom 3: Final 12, 11.2)
11.) Thia Megia (Bottom 3: Final 11, 11.2)
12.) Karen Rodriguez (Bottom 3: Final 13, 12)
13.) Ashton Jones (Bottom 3: Final 13)

Now in a season this tightly packed (and without a clear frontrunner), I do think that Casey-Haley-Paul-Stefano all have shots at climbing higher (and maybe even jumping back into the winner running), given the fact they've all demonstrated immense potential/talent at one time or another. But right now, smart money is on Pia-Scotty-Lauren to bask in confetti come May (because I don't think James-Jacob are quite marketable enough for an Idol win).

Whatever may happen, one thing is starting to become crystal clear-- this season's results, more than any other, are contingent on each contestant's weekly showing. At this point, if anyone falters, it means certian doom (Stefano and Casey serve as living proof). For the first time, maybe ever, I believe it when Ryan says that "No one is safe."

And that, my friends, shall make for a continually exciting season!

Till next week,
Z

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Final 11 (Redux) Performances

Holy balls, people.

My mother, after years of forced (aka secretly beloved) Idol watching, finally did the unthinkable: she was actually moved to vote for a contestant. This was a personal Idol moment 10 seasons in the making, because for the first time, my mom might come to understand the sweet victory/bitter defeat of an emotional attachment to an Idol contestant (and that's what really keeps us all coming back for more, isn't it?). So want to know who finally got momma to pick up the phone for the first time in 10 years? Keep reading, folks.

I really do think this almost magical mom-leap is due to two things: the songbook of one Elton John, and the phenomenally updated production value of American Idol. After a teetering dark period filled with lost judges, predictably mundane filler and Michael-Lynche-level talent (remember him? Don't bother), American Idol is back-- and with a bang, baby. We've got 11 wildly different (and equally interesting) contestants, renewed energy behind the judges panel and some serious mentoring (someone (aka Jimmy) has been reading the fan blogs this time around, huh?). Season 10 of Idol has not for one second let us forget that they are searching for a superstar, and for the first time in a while, I think they're really going to produce one (if not more).

So let's try to sort through the Elton glitter and pick out who that superstar may be...

The Hot
Pia Toscano: “Don’t Let the Sun Go Down on Me.” So you may have guessed it-- Mommy dearest loves her some Pia (like mother like gay son, I suppose). I think that may have a little something to do with Pia's NYC/NJ Italian girl roots, but it probably has more to do with Pia's flawless vocals and shining humility (and that sparkly dress-- Pia's giving JLo a run for her glam money, no?).

And let me tell you something-- Pia can sing ballads to me every night for the rest of my life, and I wouldn't freakin' tire of them. And I know there are tons of Idol (slash 80s-90s diva pop) fans out there who crave the pure diva passion smoothie Pia is blending just as much as I do. It's not just the fact that Pia can hit those insane notes, it's that she brilliantly stashes them in unexpected places in every song, so that they hit us when we least expect them (and most crave them). I don't think Pia needs to veer out of the ballad lane (though I would likes me some River Deep, Mountain High), but rather she needs to switch up her performance stylings-- not every song needs a grand band, gospel choir and center-stage stance. Image Pia barefoot, sitting side-stage and belting beside an acoustic guitar? No one would be crying wolf-ballad then, now would they? It's still way too early to call, but I think it would be a travesty if Pia wasn't given the chance to sing a sappy Idol finale single, at this point.

(OK, sorry! Ending irrational emotional Idol rant in 3, 2, 1...)

Lauren Alaina: “Candle in the Wind.” I never thought I'd use this word to describe Lauren, but she has earned it: Exquisite. I mean, those breaks into falsetto were just stunning. For the first time all season, I think Lauren has stood up and proven that she actually has a shot to win this bad boy. And this was probably her last chance to serve a deeply rooted, emotional performance before voters began to give up on her-- and damn, did she deliver. This is what I've been wanting from Lauren all season, and I can only hope she doesn't continue to waste the pretty (shoutout, Allison Iraheta. You still rock).

Haley Reinhart: "Benny and the Jets." Haley motherf**kin' Reinhart, ladies and gentleman! If you'll remember, one humble Idol blogger has been preaching about something special hidden deep down in Ms. Reinhart for weeks (uh, that's me). And while I don't think this was Haley's "Circle of Life" moment quite yet, it certainly was an Idol moment nonetheless (thanks mostly to a turn in the much-coveted show-ending pimp slot). There's something intriguing about Haley's slinky charm and f**k you flippancy when paired with that out-of-control vocal range. Let's be real, people-- she's not going to win American Idol (and I think she knows that, by now). But lord knows if she keeps this deliciousness up for a few more weeks, she might not even have to.

Casey Abrams: “Your Song.” Welcome back, Mr. Abrams. And while I'm not quite ready to break out the bass for his triumphant return, I am certainly happy to see Casey meander back towards his melodic roots (exhibiting only a few well-placed growls). I'm not sure the "makeover" did him any favors, nor am I sure Casey is destined for much more than a mid-pack elimination at this point, but I am indeed happy he's still here. I think, moving forward, Casey will have to serve up some of the unexpected quirky coolness he demonstrated in earlier rounds to even have a prayer of reaching his once-upon-a-time frontrunner status, but we all know one thing for sure: a judges save surge of votes will keep him safe this week.

James Durbin: “Saturday Night’s Alright for Fighting.” In theory, I should have hated this performance. I mean, I could barely pick out a melody in the rather intense wall-of-sound generated by both James and Bandzilla. But it goes to show you that one man-diva scream, one flaming piano and one overblown audience-crawl can overwrite what might otherwise have been a terrible performance. James is serving up a particular flavor of showmanship that no one else has been dishing this season-- and since we currently lack a frontrunner, the question we'll have to answer eventually is: what genre will have the largest voting base? Rock? Country? Reggae? Diva? Gospel? Blues? Beard? Pearly Whites? Disney Princess? Only time will tell...

The Warm
Jacob Lusk: “Sorry Seems to Be the Hardest Word.” Let's start with some real talk: I find Jacob's voice mostly unpleasant to the ear. I also think his caterwauling ways and his emotional grandstanding are solely destined for broadway (and not for a viable pop career). That being said, watching Jacob perform is somewhat akin to watching a natural disaster: meriting interest, respect, heartbreak, shock and awe. And honestly, every time I write something negative about Jacob, I can't help but imagine him running up behind me and shouting: "ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!" Yes, Jacob, you win. For I am.

Thia Megia: “Daniel.” Teetering on tears may be just enough to save Thia for another week-- and to my complete surprise, I'd actually like to see at least one more showing from her. Even though the second half of Thia's performance veered back into pageant land and her falsetto never seems to make it into the microphone (that's twice now, sweetie), there was something haunting and very pretty embedded in this performance. Thia is certainly growing-- perhaps not quickly enough, but at least it's happening. And what more can we ask of our "youngest contestant" (thanks, Ryan. Nice haircut, btw).

Paul McDonald: “Rocket Man.” "Once we get back to the real world I'll go back to writing songs and dressing like a musician." Uh, hipster say whaaaat? Does anyone else get the impression that Paul thinks he's better than Idol? Because I certainly do. Whether or not this is actually true, it's wildly apparent that Paul needs to start taking this competition a bit more seriously. Because if there's one thing worse than obscurity, it's Idol-induced obscurity. Paul's only saving grace (besides the Tim Urban Good-Looks Effect) was that tonight, he showed some flashes of emotionality in his performance. Other than that, I'm getting real tired of his mediocre, passionless bar-stool showings (said so meanly because a.) I think he's capable of much better and B.) I really can't stand pretentious artiste disrespect for anything mainstream).

The Cold

Stefano Langone: “Tiny Dancer.” Blue jean baby, what has become of you? Stefano's precipitous drop from frontrunner to bottom-feeder has been rather stunning to watch. It's amazing how fickle we fans can be, because while two weeks ago I was predicting Stefano potentially stealing the Idol crown, this week I'm predicting his early demise. Something in Stefano's phrasing keeps going wonky and short-cut, and he seems to lack the arranging skills necessary to lead a song to its rightful climax. It makes me wonder whether his early performances were merely a stroke of luck. Perhaps there's a reason Jimmy is coming down so hard on Stefano-- he seems to have all the right moving parts (voice, look, personality), but doesn't seem to possess the musical direction to pull it all together. Hopefully he'll get by on his sheer desire to stay and prove me wrong...

Scotty McCreery: “Country Comfort.” Love you grandma! Shout outs aside, we all know I'm inclined to dislike Idol's resident country crooner-- but please note, Scotty has been ranking high on my critique lists for weeks, so I can report this low-showing with some objective confidence. This was a very standard, forgettable performance. We're getting to that point in the competition where the contestants really need to amp up their starpower-- and I see Scotty flatlining. Granted, his flatline is at a consistently higher level than some of the others remaining, but if Scotty doesn't start taking some seriously ambitious risks (none of which have to betray his country roots, mind you), he's not going to rise as a contender in this closely-packed season.

Naima Adedapo: “I’m Still Standing.” Spontaneous Jamaican accents aside (I mean, really?), this performance was very smart (on paper): a noticeably less-talented contestant capitalizes on all her strengths, adapting a potentially disastrous song to suit all her vocal needs. And while I think Naima pulled many disparate parts together for what was probably her best showing (spontaneous wild-card moments aside), I don't think it's going to be quite enough this season. I genuinely adore Naima and am so happy she has made the tour, but I'm not yet convinced she's destined for much more (triple-rhyme, baby. Booyakasha!)

Predictions: Methinks Naima will finally get the Idol axe this week (with B3 target #1 Haley finally upping her game). And while I personally think Paul deserves the second boot, I think there's a strong chance it will go to Stefano (with Casey and Thia bouncing back via some respective tears for fears).

Hope you enjoyed this Idol night as much as I did, lovelies!

Till Tomorrow,
Z



Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Idol Odds & Ends

Hello kiddies, here are two pre-Idol treats for you:

1.) If you don't watch Michael Slezak's Idoloonies-- shame on you. 'Tis glorious (not to mention I've been a recurring guest star). Check out my special appearances in the links below, and then continue to watch Idoloonies-- it's pure gold.

http://www.tvline.com/2011/03/idoloonies-american-idol-season-10-top-11-judges-save/#comment-63852

http://www.tvline.com/2011/02/idoloonies-american-idol-casey-abrams-james-durbin-sarah-sellers/

2.) Some have noted that there's a flaw in my Bottom Three Winner Theory-- so here's a defense. Yes, Ruben Studdard and Kris Allen were in nebulous B3 situations very late in their respective seasons, but I left them out because it doesn't really count when the Bottom 3 makes up the majority of contestants left! I don't pay much attention to the B3 as an indicator past the Final 6, because the voting blocks for each contestant become so huge and shift around in big ways when contestants are booted (The Season 8 Danny Gokey --> Kris Allen transfer of power being the most notable example). Even Fantasia's early tryst with the B3 in the Final 7 was probably the result of a 3-way diva vote-split, don'tcha think? Once JHud and Latoya were gone, Fantasia's votes probably surged...

So the (revised) B3 theory reads as such: Any contestant appearing in the Bottom 3 early in the season (ie: pre-Final 5) probably isn't going to win. Really, the underlying assumption is that Idol winners most likely have massive vote-leads from the beginning (Clarkson, Underwood, Hicks, Sparks, Cook and DeWyze serve as proof). Chances are, Nigel already has enough voting stats to start designing a treacly single album cover for our eventual winner as we speak...

Class is now adjourned (till tomorrow night)!

Best,
Z

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Final 11 Results

American Idol "Winner"-- Jennifer Hudson (yeah, you wish, Seacrest).

Well, that was a strange night, wasn't it? From Stevie Wonder pulling a Melissa McGhee lyric flub to Naima "Vanna White" Adedapo to Hulk Hogan's random appearance to Casey Abrams complete lack of self-restraint, tonight's Idol broadcast felt a bit like a three-ring circus.

At any rate, you know it's always going to be a crazy night when Ryan opens by telling us something "shocking" is going to happen. Though in all reality, Casey's "blindside" elimination came as no surprise to many of us Idol experts (including me) who predicted his downfall. But what was mildly shocking was how utterly scripted the Judges save seemed-- "Stop the music, Ryan!" Thank the lord JLo at least offered up yet another astute round of criticism (echoed far less eloquently by Randy, as per usual).

Anyway, let's move on to some rankings, shall we? The following is in order of who's currently most likely to win-- and remember, Idol history tells us that anyone appearing in the Bottom 3 is virtually incapable of winning (which narrows our current winner pack down to six-- so sorry Stefano, love you!). Placements also take into account performer consistency (hence a ruling Pia) and likelihood to continue to grow (hence a flatlining Thia).

Top 11 Most-Likely-To-Win Rankings:
1.) Pia Toscano
2.) Scotty McCreery
3.) James Durbin
4.) Lauren Alaina
5.) Jacob Lusk
6.) Paul McDonald
7.) Stefano Langone (Bottom 3: Final 11)
8.) Casey Abrams (Bottom 3: Final 11)
9.) Haley Reinhart (Bottom 3: Final 13, 12)
10.) Naima Adedapo (Bottom 3: Final 12)
11.) Thia Megia (Bottom 3: Final 11)
12.) Karen Rodriguez (Bottom 3: Final 13, 12)
13.) Ashton Jones (Bottom 3: Final 13)

My Idol instincts tell me that the Top 5 of this list are polling head-and-shoulders above their competitors, but only time will tell. There are lots of Idol voting trends to factor in as we continue our slow march to the finale (especially when the numbers get small and voting blocks more predictably shift from contestant to contestant), so keep checking back for some expert predictions!

Till Next Week,
Z

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Final 11 Performances

For the first time this season we have witnessed the Idol train pull out of the station, my friends. We viewers are probably far too quick to pick out every flaw we see, having no idea of the enormous amount of effort it no-doubt takes to pull of America's #1 show. In past seasons, contestants (and the judges/producers) had three long Top 24-to-12 semifinal rounds to find their grooves, where mediocrity was as expected a part of our Idol journey as Simon's verbal abuses.

But this season they dove right into go-mode, so we can't complain too much that it took until the fourth live week for everyone (contestants, producers & judges) to hit their strides. Tonight was a perfectly blended Idol brew-- contestants who are learning how to play the game, present some artistry and handle fame (kudos Lauren Alaina), producers who are creating much more live-performance friendly tracks and judge(s) (JLO) who are offering astute, constructive critiques. Hey, even the much-lauded transparency is kicking in-- hearing contestants' honest takes on their own foibles is quite refreshing.

So all in all, well played, American Idol. There's the show I've come to know and love! (Though my snark has to find a way to creep through-- was anyone else not feeling JLo's clown-themed, Manilla Luzon makeup tonight?) Girl glows (I totally get the perfume name now), she doesn't need all that caked mess. Also, do we really need to cut to JLo being "moved" by every performance, Paula Abdul style? How about the occasional Steven Tyler reaction shot, huh?

Now let's move onto the talent-- especially because this already tight race just got even tighter.

The Hot
Pia Toscano: “All in Love Is Fair.” It's times like these where I find myself missing Simon, because lord knows he would have given Pia her diva propers for this performance (I really wish she had been around last season to eviscerate the competition and give Simon his yearly Celine-Whitney-Mariah eargasm). This performance was purely STUNNING. Sure, Pia needs to switch up her performance style (it's not the ballads that are hurting her, it's the similar delivery each week--even Scotty has found ways to serve the same old country french fries straight up, curly and steak style). But come on, powerhouse showings like these are the stuff that Idol is made of, and I wish the judges would have given Pia a bigger moment post-performance. All irrational attachment systems are a go-- I'm officially obsessed (bolstered by the knowledge that a close friend from college went to LaGuardia performing arts high school with Pia, and says, "Pia was born to sing Celine, and yes, she is every bit as sweet as she seems.") For some reason Pia's intensity, maturity and poise keeps bringing me back to Adam Lambert (despite their wildly different styles)-- Pia needs to take a page out of his book and have a "Mad World" moment to truly cement her frontrunner status.

Jacob Lusk: “You’re All I Need to Get By.” Despite the fact that Jacob's pre-performance package started with a sweaty demonstration of what the "Lusky Stank" might actually be, Jacob really pulled his ish together tonight. Ridiculously literal affectations aside (did he really have to "push up that hill"?), Jacob finally reigned in all that hot mess and channeled it into something truly rousing. I still have no idea where he'd fit in today's musical landscape (because he wouldn't), but we're early enough in the Idol game that a judge-sanctioned "moment" guarauntees safety (but really, they should've saved that standing-O/hug combo for Pia). Sidenote: anyone else find it refreshing that Jacob's obvious gayness (I mean, srsly gurl) has been completely overlooked due to his monstrous natural talent? Can I get an amen?

James Durbin: “Living for the City.” As much as I want to criticize James for his crowd-pimping antics, who can really blame the guy? Knowing how fleeting Idol fame can be, why the hell not soak every inch of it in while you sill can? That being said, I do think James gave an exciting (if not his best) showing tonight, making all the right rocker moves on his march to the Kodak. What seems especially important is James's ability to excite Jimmy/the producers/former rock legends, though. If he gets their musical mojo going, he's clearly doing something right.

The Warm
Stefano Langone: “Hello.” Jennifer freakin' Lopez, delivering what I believe may be the BEST and most specifically pointed Idol advice ever uttered in 10 seasons: "I don't want the intensity to come from you wanting to do well, I want the intensity to come because your heart is breaking." Stefano has rightly been in do-or-die mode, but in the process of singing for his life, he has emerged as a frontrunner. So now he needs to learn to take the kind of artistic and emotional risks that Idol winners are born of-- and I think we all know he has the goods to do so. He's one tender, vulnerable, stripped down Kris Allen "Heartless" or David Cook "Hello" (ironically) away from locking onto the Kodak.

Lauren Alaina: “You Keep Me Hangin’ On.” I found Lauren's candid admission of poorly handling both fame and the competition wildly endearing-- I mean, we all ask the world of these (literal) kids, so I applaud her declaration of self consciousness (even if it continues to come across as ungrateful stankness, sadly). The slow opening of Lauren's performance was glorious-- she's simply got a ridiculous voice. But the ensuing midtempo, unforgettable laziness makes me wish Lauren had waited just a few more years to hit the Idol stage, when she might have had a bit more fire in her belly (like Pia/Stefano/Naima/James). Methinks a 16-year-old can miss the enormity of this opportunity when they haven't even had the chance to fail at anything yet. Here's hoping Lauren pulls out a ballad or two before she burns out, because lord, do I wants to hear her sing something pretty.

Paul McDonald:
“The Tracks of My Tears.” So while this was a vast improvement on Paul's previous showings, I've still got a bone to pick: as one Tyra Banks might say, Paul is relying on his pretty. Like a freshly plucked Top Model contestant, Paul has yet to dig down deep and deliver any kind of emotion besides "jolly" in his performances. I mean, "Tracks of my Tears" is a profoundly sad song (just ask Adam Lambert), but Paul delivered it with a totally mismatched, jaunty cheer. Sparkly charm and natural good-looks do not a Top Model-- err, American Idol, make. The good news: with that voice of his, all Paul has to do is crack the Top 7 or 8 to have a solid recording career, at this point (and indeed, it feels like that's what he's aiming for. Just ask Jason Castro).

Haley Reinhart:“You’ve Really Got a Hold On Me.” I listened back to Haley's performance with my eyes closed, and the experience was VASTLY improved. Minus all the awkward slinking and gratuitous stomping, Haley sounded freakin' fantastic. I'm having serious Jennifer Hudson flashbacks (hear me out!)-- despite her vocal chops, JHud's early Idol run was streaked with unfocused and erratic showings that landed her in the Bottom often (don't believe me? Go listen to her versions of "Heat Wave" and "Baby I Love You." Mad screechy, dawg). And then, out of nowhere/up above, came "Circle of Life" (which remains my favorite Idol moment of all time-- there, I said it!). All it took was one "a-ha" moment and everything changed for Jennifer. I really think Haley could do the same-- if she surprises everyone with a commanding and gut-wrenching delivery to match those considerable vocals, she's going to have it made. But she better do it quickly...

Naima Adedapo: “Dancing in the Street.” For better or worse, Naima fits right in talent-wise with the Rihanna/Katy Perry/Ke$ha crowd, with a delightful splash of originality. To Naima's credit, she shored up her pitch problems and brought back the much-needed dance interlude, but will that be enough for her to survive much longer? Methinks not. As Simon might say, I don't think Naima is destined for a pop career-- a stint on the Idol tour and a healthy gigging career after? Sure. But certianly not superstardom. Sad face.

The Cold
Scotty McCreery: “For Once In My Life.” As charming as Scotty can be, I simply will not abide this rendition. I ADORE the Stevie Womer version, and this poorly phrased, overly forced showing was downright blasphemous. I even think Scotty fans would agree-- he's much, much better than this performance. But Scotty survived Motown week without compromising himself, which is ultimately more important at this stage in the game than just about anything.

Casey Abrams: “I Heard It Through the Grapevine.” Things I remember from this performance: 1) The sexy violinist girl group. Weild them bows, baby. 2) A backup singer who looks much like a young LeAnn Rimes. 3) Casey's creeptastic vibe and complete lack of melody and/or pitch. Seriously, what happened to the bass-slinging prodigy we heard back in Hollywood? Casey seems to be the only one not examining himself and showing growth on the Idol stage, and that makes him rife for early-elimination (dare I say, perhaps even this week)?

Thia Megia: "Heat Wave.” If last year's season-that-shall-not-be-named taught us anything, it's that if a contestant fails to deliver a relevant and/or emotionally stirring performance four times in a row, they're simply never going to (no matter how much you want them to). Thia performs competently every week, but there's simply nothing to get excited about. Which is why I'm completely confused as to who's voting for Thia. Bitter Jasmine Trias clingers? Blue-corn enthusiasts? Pocahontas fashionistas? (Girl really is killing it with the nude-colored dresses, though).

Precictions: This is going to be a really, really tough one to call-- but sadly, my gut is telling me Casey Abrams will the first guy to bite the dust (and the next to go). We're due for a surprise elimination, and Casey's monotone showings might get left behind as everyone turned up their volume this week. I also think Thia will come close to elimination (though I've incorrectly predicted her downfall twice before) and that Haley will once again brush with the Bottom 3. But as always, we shall see.

Brace yourselves, Idol nation. I have a feeling Thursday's broadcast will lead us into some choppy waters...

Till Tomorrow,
Z


Thursday, March 17, 2011

Final 12 Results

Considering no one was surprised by Karen's ouster tonight (despite some surprisingly sharp group-number dance moves), I'm starting a new Results Night tradition: ranking the remaining contestants from Most Likely To Win to Least Likely To Win.

Based on 9 seasons of Idol watching, picking out those destined to perform at the Kodak is tricky business, but there are some common trends to look out for: winners perform strongly every week, hit us with something unexpected, have a distinctive direction/sound, and most importantly: they never, ever grace the Bottom 3. (Seriously, in nine seasons of Idol, the only winner to hit the Bottom 3 was Fantasia Barrino in Season 3's Final 7 diva massacre (and oh what a horror that was!)). So let it be known: falling into the bottom 3 forecasts eventual elimination--always. Which means there are still 9 (out of 11) viable contenders.

In fact, I'm sure somewhere deep in the Idol machine, there's a department devoted to forecasting voting statistics-- they definitely don't tell us the contestants' voting numbers for a reason. Chances are, the Clarksons and Underwoods of the competition simply dominate voting from a very early stage, and who would want to ruin all that perfectly crafted Idol suspense (he says without any irony at all...)?

Anyway, here goes!

Top 11 Most-Likely-To-Win Rankings:
1.) Scotty McCreery
2.) Stefano Langone
3.) Lauren Alaina
4.) Pia Toscano
5.) James Durbin
6.) Casey Abrams
7.) Paul McDonald
8.) Jacob Lusk
9.) Thia Megia
10.) Naima Adedapo (Bottom 3: Final 12)
11.) Haley Reinhart (Bottom 3: Final 13, 12)
12.) Karen Rodriguez (Bottom 3: Final 13, 12)
13.) Ashton Jones (Bottom 3: Final 13)

So there you have it, America. We have one cut left before the Idol 2011 tour roster is announced-- and let me say, I have a feeling a guy is getting the ax next, because heaven forbid there's an uneven guy/girl ratio for the tour... but as always, we shall see!

Till next week,
Z

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Final 12 Performances

All right gang-- as much as I'm loving the artist-producing mentor vibe Idol's got going this season (and the seriously fun/informative pre-performance packages), I do have one serious contention: most of the contestants, via this producer guidance, seem to be choosing/crafting songs based on what will make viable singles, as opposed to fantastic live performances. The over-emphasis on production value seems to have seriously harmed the live performance quality of many of these songs, which is a bit troubling... I wants some organic Idol moments, and I wants them fresh (not pre-packaged).

That being said, the judges are indeed correct-- we have ourselves a real competition. A solid half of the contestants have a really even shot at basking in confetti rain come May, with the other half seemingly capable of upping their game (even if they haven't quite shined yet).

And despite the terribly weak/outdated song list on tonight's broadcast (who really preaches of the musical genius produced between 1984-1995?), I was thoroughly entertained-- so I will keep my snarky mouth shut and get to the good stuff:

The Hot
Pia Toscano: “Where Do Broken Hearts Go.” Z's list of ideal Idoldom: Show-stopping vocals? Check. Heart of gold? Check. Focused dream drive? Check. Affinity for 90s diva balladeering? Check. I could go on for days, but you get the point-- Pia is bringing traditional Idol female fire the likes of which haven't been seen for seasons, and I'm loving every moment of it. Work. It. Out. Girl! (Though slapping a dance beat on a Whitney ballad doesn't quite count as switching it up--let's see you sing something totally unexpected, next time? I'm counting on you!)

Stefano Langone: “If You Don’t Know Me By Now.” Talk about making lemonade out of lemons-- all of the contestants likely faced equally dismal track lists, but Stefano proved that even mediocre songs can be used to create fierce, fiery Idol performances. While I thought Stefano's delivery was a bit truncated and choppy, his passion and talent is simply undeniable. He's one of the select few this season that not only presents himsalf as a relevant/distinct artist, but also knows exactly what it takes to craft movingly memorable Idol performances-- he leaves it all on the stage every week (and America has come to accept nothing less).

Scotty McCreery:
“Can I Trust You With My Heart.” Scotty really is proving to be the perfect Idol package: young, cute, genuine, talented and oh-so-country. And while I can't say I'll ever enjoy his brand of twang, I must respect his considerable talent (which was indeed stretched a bit further for all to see this week). At this point, the only way he's not going to win is if he's the butt of a surprise elimination, Tamyra Gray/Jennifer Hudson/Chris Daughtry style.

Lauren Alaina: “I’m the Only One.” Well played, Lauren--this was the only song choice of the night that felt pitch-perfect and relevant, to me. I loved Lauren's tone on this song, and it reminded my why I liked her in the first place. Now if she cuts back on the babygirl pouting and ramps up the crystal-clear country-diva singing, she'll knock herself back up into frontrunner status (sans producer pushing).

The Warm
Jacob Lusk: “Alone.” Even though this song's been done-t0-death on Idol, it has never been sung by a male singer. And while I can't say it was my favorite Alone rendition (whatup Carrie & Allison!), I can say I will certainly remember Jacob's take in years to come. It was insanely over-the-top and mostly unpleasant to the ear, but no one can deny that Jacob births little song-babies every time he hits that stage. This paired with an unexpected rock song-choice and a few fleeting moments of vocal restraint keeps Jacob out of the red... this week, at least.

Casey Abrams: “Smells Like Teen Spirit.” While I respect any contestant's attempts at "risk-taking," this performance falls squarely into the fail category dawg, for me, for you. Casey's trademark charm, passion and grit turned straight creepy under the harsh Idol lights. I'm excited that I can't necessarily predict what Casey will do next after this, but am worried that he doesn't quite understand what works/doesn't work on the Idol stage...

James Durbin: “I’ll Be There for You.” I'm not sure whether to blame this melody-less bit of Jovi on James, the overblown band or the return of the man-scarf tail. Whoever may be at fault, James is certainly not deserving of a sparks-spraying finale, nor the announcement of what he'll be singing at the finale. If you keep up the pretender posturing, these five words I swear to you: America will cut you, son.

The Cold
Paul McDonald:“I Guess That’s Why They Call It the Blues.” Can you differentiate between any of the three floppy live performances Paul has served up so far? While I'm craving a buffet of raw acoustic goodness from Paul, I keep getting the same reheated dish of overcooked antics. If he doesn't find a way to craft some kind of memorable moment (use. your. guitar! lose. the. band!) and make a strong impression, he'll never break from his current mid-pack status.

Karen Rodriguez: “Love Will Lead You Back.” She's never going to out-diva Pia with these competent showings, so she really needs to find a way to work her Latina charm vocally if she's going to make the Idol tour. In a season where there's lots of distinct flavors (pop/r&b/rock/gospel/country/reggae/disneyprincess), Karen needs to embrace her strengths and stop pushing into too-deep diva waters.

Thia Megia:
“Colors of the Wind.” The good news: Thia understands the power of freeing herself of the mighty bandzilla wall-of-sound and sometimes-wonky production "updates," all while rocking a well-cut, nude-colored dress (that's two, and counting). The bad news: this performance was unexciting and musically irrelevant, and it's sleepy delivery only reinforced my view of Thia as a somber sally. She keeps claiming she's going to bring the fire/passion, but you can only cry wolf on the Idol stage so many times before getting the boot.

Haley Reinhart: “I’m Your Baby Tonight.” Wait, was Haley sober for this one? Between the red-lipstick explosion, near-tripping stage runs, ignored/missed notes and random microphone abuse, I don't know that anything will salvage Haley's sinking ship (which is so sad, because I want to be a fan). But perhaps she's looking to work the as-of-yet underutilized "vote for the worst" voting block... sigh. And anyone else wonder where Jimmy's dig against Haley's "work ethic" came from?

Naima Adedapo:
“What’s Love Got to Do With It.” Every week I feel the same way about Naima: love her, but not her voice. Without some umbrella-swishing, tear-breakdowning tricks up her sleeve, Naima's voice simply leaves me wanting more. She needs to finds songs that will support (and not stretch) her limited instrument-- not to mention define her as an artist (does she belong in a cabaret? church? club? cruise? Jury's still out).

Predictions: I think Haley will bite the dust this week, since her loopy showing won't merit a bottom 3 rebound (whereas Karen's more discernible fanbase will probably resurge after her brush with elimination). I'm also thinking Naima will come dangerously close to elimination (if not pulling the boot, herself), with Thia joining the Bottom 3 pack... but we shall see!

Till elimination night,
Z